![]() Life coaches? It’s a new profession, and I’m still not sure what they do or how this works. If you expose your financial track record to a financial planner, he’ll tell you all the things that you did right and wrong. Hindsight bias, somehow, seems to be woven deeply into the fabric of many professions. These are two models that are informed by the past, tested in the present, and then boldly suggest what will happen next. I guess that’s why I geek out on Gartner’s Hype Cycle and Crossing the Chasm. It leaves you vulnerable because you might be wrong. Ironically, I’ve found very few of these authors who have the courage to predict the future–this takes too much nerve. Their hope is that their storytelling will be so compelling that you’ll agree with anything else they write. These writers look back at winners and losers in the business world, and then they string together theories to explain why it happened. ![]() Surprisingly, many business authors and bloggers fall victim to hindsight bias. If you pick through the facts of any situation, you can draw almost any conclusion. Yet they find evidence to support the outcome. The only thing that changed was a gust of wind. But if the wind would have blown the football outside of the goalposts and their team lost by a point, they would have been forced to explain the many reasons why their team lost. If their football team wins, they can tell you a long list of reasons why their team won the game. However rewarding it is to hear these stories on the shows, they were rife with what psychologists call hindsight bias: Hindsight bias is the inclination, after an event has occurred, to see the event as having been predictable, despite there having been little or no objective basis for predicting it.Īnother way to say it: it’s easy to make sense of things that have already happened.
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